Monday, June 4, 2012

Debt crisis: Live

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EU Commissioner Olli Rehn has a plan to save ailing banks, but no power

13.00 Olli Rehn, the EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner, to bang the drum for direct intervention to bail out ailing banks. He told a news briefing in Brussels:

QuoteWe have been considering this as a serious possibility, of breaking the link between the sovereigns and the banks. This is not part of the ESM (bailout fund) treaty for the moment, in its present form, but we see that it is important to consider this alternative of direct bank recapitalisation as we are now moving on in the discussion on the possible ways and means to create a banking union.

The key issue is to be able to break the link between the banks and the sovereigns so that we can go to the roots of this current debt crisis.

All good as well Olli, but will the German's agree?

Jerome Kerviel arriving at court in Paris for his appeal on Monday

12.45 Jerome Kerviel, the Societe Generale rogue trader who lost the bank ?4.9bn (?4bn) in 2008, has begun his appeal against his conviction for the trades. He arrive at court in Paris wearing an open-necked white shirt and showing little emotion. The 35-year-old does not deny he covered up the positions he held, but claims his superiors knew what he was doing. SocGen, for its part, denies any part in the trades.

12.30 Spain's Ibex index is up 2.8pc, driven by a jump bank shares, despite little comfort from fresh jobs data. The country continues to face pressure on jobs, despite a dip in the number of people looking for work for the second month.

Official figures today showed the number of people filing for unemployment benefits fell by 30,113 or 0.63pc, to 4.71m in May. This is down from a record high of 4.75m in March but the unemployment rate remains the highest in the eurozone at 24.3pc, with the figures for youths above 50pc.

Engracia Hidalgo, the Spanish junior labour minister, said:

QuoteWe find ourselves in a second phase of recession, which, even if it is not as brutal and deep as the first, has had a negative impact on employment.

12.00 The bleak economic news out of China and the US, may have a silver lining for the oil price. Benchmark Brent crude for one-month forward delivery has slipped further below $100 a barrel. A noon it was tradining London at $96.64.

Helping push down prices in data from the IntercontinentalExchange (ICE) showing that speculators - Hedge funds and other big money managers - cut their net long positions in Brent crude and gasoil futures and options in the week to May 29.

Herman Van Rompuy is working on a plan for deeper EU economic integration

11.50 Herman Van Rompuy, the chairman of the EU leaders' meetings, said today the euro zone is likely to come up with a plan for deeper economic integration by the end of the year.

Speaking in St Petersburg, Russia, he said that by the next summit of EU leaders at the end of June he and three other top EU officials, would present "the main building blocks for this deepened economic and monetary union" and "a working method to achieve this objective".

QuoteIn those building blocks, banking integration is an important chapter... I will deal at this stage on supervision, on deposit insurance and on resolution. So we are working on it. It is the beginning only of the work... and hopefully we can present results of that work already by the end of this year.

But Bloomberg's Linda Yueh tweets:

The quote is from EU spokesman Pia Ahrenkilde-Hansen

11.40 Pranab Mukherjee, India's finance minister, has admitted the government has no scope to increase public spending to spur an economy that has been hit by an escalating eurozone crisis. He said on Monday:

QuoteThe second round of global uncertainty and the slowdown has come rather quickly on the heels of the previous one, with practically no headroom for running a proactive fiscal policy.

The escalating debt crisis in Europe means the country will be unable to launch a stimulus programme like it did after the 2008 financial crisis. Last Thursday, India published shock economic growth figures showing the economy growing at 5.3pc in the January-March period, the slowest quarterly growth figure in nine years.

11.25 Bruno Waterfield, our Brussels Correspondent who covered the Irish referendum on the fiscal compact last week, tweets:

The Irish will not be pleased.

The DAX index in Frankfurt on Monday

11.00 The game of chicken continues in Europe. The German government said today it was up to Spain to decide whether it wants to apply for aid from international lenders.

Reuters reports that Government spokesman Steffen Seibert, reponding to questions following reports that Berlin has urged Madrid to seek aid, said:

QuoteIt is only for a national government to decide whether it draws on the rescue mechanism and the requirements that are linked to it. That of course is also true for Spain.

He also said Spain needed to provide clarity on the volume of funds needed to recapitalise its banks and said Europe stood ready to help if aid were needed.

10.40 Greece could need an immediate cash injection of up to ?259bn if it left the euro today, Open Europe says in a briefing released today ahead of the Greek general elections on 17 June.

QuoteDue to a likely bank collapse and urgent cash shortage, Open Europe estimates that if Greece left the euro now, it would need between ?67bn and ?259bn in external and immediate short-term support, not including support in the longer term or contagion costs to the rest of the eurozone.

It believes this support could potentially be split between the IMF, the eurozone and non-euro countries, with Britain "possibly underwriting ?4bn-?6bn of the entire rescue package".

Open Europe says a Greek exit and devaluation could also ease austerity and the pressure on the Greek people, particularly in the long term.

The think tank believes there are "clear economic benefits to Greece leaving the euro", but warns the risks involved in an imminent exit could well outweigh these benefits in the short term:

? The ?259bn figure does not include longer-term support or contagion costs to the rest of the eurozone.
? Undercapitalised Greek banks would collapse and need a ?55bn capital injection Greece would struggle to raise.
? The country would face a spike in inflation as its central bank creates new liquidity to help keep Greek banks afloat.
? A 30pc devaluation of the new Greek currency could boost exports but increase the cost of imports - Greece has few natural resources or industries to fall back on.
? Greece would still need to find immediate savings of at least ?12bn to pay various bills, including hospital and social security expenditure.

10.30 The possibility of that the European Central Bank could have room to cut rates was a boost by unexpectedly stable eurozone factory gate prices.

Producer prices in the 17 countries using the euro were unchanged in the month, the European Union's statistics office Eurostat said on Monday, marking the fourth month in a row of weakening inflation. Economists has expected a 0.2pc rise.

Madrid's Ibex rose 138 points - or 2.3pc - to 6207.40 by mid morning on Monday. Phote: EPA

10.15 European markets continue to reflect worries for the global economy after weak data from the US, China and Europe and hopes of a tighter fiscal union in the eurozone.

Falls in Germany - the DAX is down 1.1pc - but France's CAC-40 clawed back early losses and now up 0.3pc. Shares in Italy and Spain remain higher. Bank shares in Spain have jumped after prime minister Mariano Rajoy urged Europe to protect banks via a centralised system.

However, Wall Street looks like it will open lower, with Dow Jones industrial futures shedding 0.5pc to 12,043, while the S&P 500 futures lost 0.3pc to 1,269.70.

Vitor Gaspar, the Portugal finance minister, warns of considerable interal and external risks as the country passes its fourth quarterly review of its ?78bn EU bailout.

10.00 Portugal has passed its fourth quarterly review of its EU-IMF rescue. Finance Minister Vitor Gaspar vowed to stick to the pact's goals despite risks including rising unemployment. He said:

QuoteThere are considerable internal and external risks, The only certainty we have is that we need to focus on meeting the targets of the programme.

Many economists say the country may have to seek more emergency funding, but Lisbon has repeatedly said it needs no more time or money.

09.53 Cigolo tweets these comments from the Portuguese finance minister Vitor Gaspar:

The government also now estimates the GDP growth will be just 0.2pc in 2013, well down from the 0.6pc it estimated in April.

09.50 Portugal has today injected more than ?6.65bn into private banks BCP and BPI, and the state-owned CGD to meet criteria established by the European Banking Authority, the finance ministry said.

?5bn is to come from an envelope worth ?12 billion included in a financial rescue plan drawn up in May 2011. Portugal last year became the third eurozone country after Greece and Ireland to be bailed out, receiving an EU-IMF package worth up to ?78bn in return for a commitment to reform its economy and impose austerity measures.

09.45 More Grexit fears. This times it is China, which is said to have called on the central bank and other key agencies to prepare a plan to deal with the potential fall-out from a Greek withdrawal from the euro.

Reuters, citing sources, said the plans may include measures to keep the yuan currency stable, increase checks on cross-border capital flows and stepping up policies to stabilise the domestic economy.

09.31 This tweet from ForexLive on June's eurozone investor sentiment index.

Not much comfort to be taken from the fact that it is not as low as forecast of -29.5. In May it was -24.5 - a low not seen since the height of the financial crisis in September 2009.

The euro against the dollar over the past eight trading days. Graph: Bloomberg

09.30 The euro slid 0.3pc to $1.2400, moving closer to the $1.2288 it hit on Friday, its lowest level since July 2010, while Brent crude oil fell below $97 a barrel to a 16-month low.

09.00 The Financial Times in its leader column says the Irish are hoping to win some concessions from last week's Yes vote to the eurozone fiscal compact. The writer says the country is watch development in Spain closely:

Quote If the eurozone now moves towards banking union ? enabling the European Stability Mechanism to be used to recapitalise banks rather than fund governments ? Dublin will insist its bank debts get equivalent treatment.

08.40 German Bund futures slipped to a session low and Italian debt rallied as investors looked to take profits on sharp moves in the previous week, with low liquidity exacerbating the price swings, Reuters reports.

German Bund futures fell to a low of 145.97, down 37 ticks on the day as investors trimmed back safe-haven positions.

Alessandro Giansanti, strategist at ING in Amsterdam, said:

QuoteThis is some profit taking after the rally of last week when we reached very high levels. There is some spread tightening today too, maybe the market is expecting them to provide some bailout money for Spain.

Italian 10-year government bond yields fell 11 basis points to 5.79pc, narrowing the yield spread over German Bunds. Yield on 10-year Spanish bonds also edged lower.

08.30 Francois Duhen, strategist at CM-CIC Securities, comments.

QuoteEverybody is now waiting for what decision the ECB will take on Wednesday and what (U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben) Bernanke will announce on Thursday. There are strong expectations that something will happen, otherwise the market will go much further down.

08.15 The German blue-chip DAX stock index fell below the key psychological level of 6,000 points for the first time since January at the start of trade on Monday.

The DAX opened at 5,976.46 points, down 73.83 points or 1.2pc from the close on Friday.

While France's CAC has opened has also down - 0.8pc - exchanges in Spain and italy are trading up 1.2pc and 0.6pc respectively on hopes that the eurozone might move towards greater centralised control of national budgets in the single currency bloc, after comments by Mariano Rajoy, the Spanish prime minister, at the weekend.

On Friday, while the Dax and the CAC-40 hit five- and six-month troughs respectively, after weak jobs and manufacturing data from the United States, Europe and China cast new doubts on prospects for a global economic recovery.

UK markets were closed today, though the FTSE Eurofirst index of top European shares opened down 0.7pc at 2054.97 points after hitting a six-month low on Friday.

The Greek market is also closed.

Japan's broader Topix index dropped 1.9pc to a 28-year low

07.30 Asian stock markets fell on Monday on fears of a nightmare scenario of eurozone breakup, US economic relapse and a sharp slowdown in China.

Weak US jobs data in May pushed Wall Street indexes to their biggest declines of the year on Friday, with Dow Jones industrial average sliding 275 points, its biggest one-day decline since November.

The dismal report added to worries of the health of the global economy after data that showed weak economic conditions in China and Europe, where manufacturing contracted and unemployment in the 17 countries that use the euro currency stayed at a record-high 11pc in April.

Fears for China were heightened after poor manufacturing data on Friday was followed by data yesterday showing the country's services sector slowed for the second straight month in May. It dropped further from a 10-month high hit in March, according to an official survey of non-manufacturing purchasing managers.

Japan's broader Topix index dropped 1.9pc to a 28-year low of 695.51, the lowest level since December 1983. The Nikkei 224 index dropped 1.7pc to a six-month low of 8,277.56.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng tumbled 2.4pc to 18,119.01, China's Shanghai Composite dropped 2.7pc, South Korea's Kospi shed 2.8pc and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 lost 1.9pc.

"US jobs numbers were not the only weak reading as manufacturing output data in China and the US were also lower, and euro area unemployment reached a record level," Stan Shamu of IG Markets in Melbourne, said in an email.

"There aren't many positives for risk assets at the moment," he said.

07.15 To make matters worse, last night it was revealed that international lending is contracting at the fastest pace since the onset of the financial crisis in 2008 as Europe's banks scramble to meet tougher rules.

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) said cross-border loans fell by $799bn (?520bn) in the fourth quarter of 2011, led by a broad retreat from Italy, Spain and the eurozone periphery.

The BIS's quarterly report said the decline in lending was "largely driven by banks headquatered in the euro area facing pressures to reduce their leverage".

07.12 Ambrose Evans-Pritchard believes Europe has stopped pretending about the scale of its problems:

We face the grim possibility that all key engines of the global system will sputter together, this time with interest rates already near zero in the West and average public debt in the OECD club already at a record 106pc of GDP...

The warnings from the bond markets could hardly be clearer. German 10-year Bund yields closed at 1.17pc. The two-year notes turned negative. British Gilts closed at 1.53pc, the lowest in 300 years. US Treasuries fell to 1.45pc, lower than at any time during the Great Depression.

The debt markets are pricing in for a global deflationary bust. Europe will have to restore shattered trust in the worst possible circumstances.

07.10 Spain's ruling party has begun to crack under pressure, signalling for the first time that the country may need a European rescue to shore up its banking system. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard reports:

"A bail-out would not be the apocalypse," said Jos? Mar?a Beneyto, foreign affairs spokesman in Spain's parliament. "You have to live with it. We have got to escape this or we'll go mad worrying about bonds spreads."

Mr Benyeto accepted that it would mean cuts in salaries and pensions dictated by a Troika from the EU, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund. "Portugal is living with it relatively passively, and Ireland, too," he said.

The shift came as Cyprus edged closer to a bail-out after President Demetris Christofias said his country had been engulfed by large exposure to Greece. "I don't want to absolutely exclude it," he said.

07.06 France has warned that a Greek exit from the eurozone will be on the agenda if Athens fails to impose austerity measures required in its EU-IMF bailout deal.

Finance Minister Pierre Moscovici said on French television last night:

Quote The question would be raised without a doubt.... if the Greeks themselves do not respect their commitments.

07.00 Over the weekend, we reported that Bank of England policymakers may opt to inject a further ?50bn of stimulus into Britain?s ailing economy this week. Angela Monaghan writes:

Worsening economic prospects could force the hand of the Bank?s Monetary Policy Committee, which last month voted to pause its purchase of government bonds after pumping ?325bn into the market through quantitative easing.

George Buckley, economist at Deutsche Bank, said the grim manufacturing PMI survey was "a game changer". Michael Saunders of Citigroup was of the same view.

?On balance, we forecast the MPC will expand QE by another ?50bn at the June meeting,? he said.

06.55 UK markets are closed today because of the bank holiday, but European and US indexes will be trading.

06.45 Good morning and welcome back to our live coverage of the European debt crisis.

Debt crisis live: archive

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